Author’s Note: This article was written on April 24, 2022, during a special period. At that time, I began to realize that people must rely on themselves and cannot count on the outside world.
Some statements from that time: “The state cannot possibly have the capacity to protect every citizen under wartime conditions; individuals need to take more responsibility for their own and their families’ lives and safety, making more thorough preparations. For the victory of the war, information control and individual sacrifices will be inevitable. Citizens accustomed to peace for a long time need to quickly develop wartime thinking, change the previous behavior patterns that emphasized efficiency while neglecting safety, and stay away from risk factors. Individuals cannot change the trend of the times, but at least to some extent, they can choose their own position.” This was partially verified during the subsequent reopening, and hopefully the future will not be too harsh.
“Technological blockades and economic strangulation inevitably mean suffering and even death for the people. Only seeing the bloodshed in the Russia-Ukraine war without realizing the long-term impact of U.S.-coerced global sanctions is not a rational attitude.” China’s economic resilience, the advantages of industrial production supported by the entire industrial chain, domestic substitution, and technological innovation are more optimistic than initially expected, but pressure is unavoidable.
Personally, I expect that between 2025 and 2035, there will be enormous changes in the world order and economic production, and the Taiwan issue will also reach a final resolution. I hold a cautiously optimistic attitude towards China’s future but believe it is essential to prepare for fluctuations and risks.
Recent observations of the internet have revealed a rather regrettable reality: most people are not keenly aware of the changes of the times, have not timely shifted to wartime thinking, and are not adequately preparing for the imminent trials.
Wartime thinking is a concept contrasted with peacetime thinking, meaning that based on the changing situation of wartime, one re-evaluates the current state, promptly adjusts value priorities, and makes decisions different from those in peacetime.
With the passage of time, the world order after the end of the Cold War has profoundly changed; the authority of the United Nations in international order has declined; conflicts between countries are increasingly manifesting before the public in more intense ways; globally, there is insufficient effective demand, relative overproduction, financial measures can only delay the outbreak of crises without fundamentally solving problems; coupled with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply chains have been disrupted, and problems of food and energy security have emerged; impacted by selective or even false reporting from the media, people with different values find it increasingly difficult to understand each other, and consensus on objectively occurring facts cannot be reached…
If peace and development were once the themes of the times, then turbulence and security will be the melody of the future. When the wheel of history roars forward, the imprints of the old era will be mercilessly crushed. In my view, in a sense, the war has already begun, its duration unpredictable, with no sign of ending in the short term.
Regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, from December 2019 until the time of writing, it has lasted more than two years; multiple variants have widely spread worldwide, causing large-scale infections, and reinfections do not confer immunity; vaccines, specific drugs, and other methods have not achieved ideal outcomes. The COVID-19 pandemic has not only affected people’s lives — such as wearing masks, nucleic acid testing, isolation, various restrictions, issues with employment and travel — but has also severely damaged the global supply chain constructed under the liberal theory of comparative advantage post-Cold War. Whether in terms of personnel casualties or economic impact, the COVID-19 pandemic can be viewed as a war without the smoke of gunpowder.
If the COVID-19 pandemic is to be measured by the standards of war, Shanghai, due to various factors, failed to implement strictly and tightly the epidemic prevention and control measures emphasized at the March 12 national epidemic prevention and control teleconference: “Resolutely guard the bottom line of no large-scale rebound of the epidemic.” It also failed to implement the spirit of the important speech of the Politburo Standing Committee on March 17, resulting in the defense line being breached by the coronavirus, the nature of which was quite serious and must be dealt with accordingly afterward. The breach of the defense line actually means chaos and losses until a new defense line is established. The state cannot possess the capacity to protect every citizen under wartime conditions; individuals need to take more responsibility for their own and their families’ lives and safety, making more thorough preparations. For the victory of the war, information control and individual sacrifices will be inevitable. Citizens accustomed to long periods of peace need to quickly develop wartime thinking, change the previous behavior patterns that emphasize efficiency at the expense of safety, and stay away from risk factors. Individuals cannot change the trend of the times, but at least to some extent, they can choose their own position.
Citizens who were once well protected need, during special periods, to have more understanding and support for governments that have proven their capability, to resolutely follow orders, and strive for victory. When decisions have been made, individuals lacking comprehensive knowledge of national circumstances and the expertise in public health and medicine should no longer engage in meaningless debates over “zero COVID” vs. “coexistence,” as such arguments are unlikely to be constructive and will only affect the firmness of executing “dynamic zero COVID.” Many things are regrettable, but we should not fall into emotional focus on individuals’ sorrows and joys; instead, we need to look at and solve problems from a broader perspective.
U.S.-China relations are a similar case. Since May 16, 2020, when the U.S. placed Huawei — a representative enterprise of China’s industrial upgrading — on the Entity List, forbidding it to purchase products containing U.S. technology without special permission, there should no longer be any unrealistic illusions. Technological blockades and economic strangulation inevitably mean the suffering and even death of the people. Only seeing the bloodshed in the Russia-Ukraine war and failing to recognize the long-term impact of U.S.-forced global sanctions is not a rational attitude.
Rather than sympathizing with the suffering of the Ukrainian people, it is better to examine one’s own situation more cautiously. Hu Xijin’s statement “The Taiwan Strait situation is spiraling downward; we must prepare for military struggle” is far from idle talk. Academia is already seriously studying possible sanctions and subsequent impacts if an incident occurs in the Taiwan Strait. Most citizens have not seriously considered the impact this increasingly imminent event will have on their lives, hoping for a short-term military victory (like Russia’s naïveté in Ukraine), unaware that the event will not end once actual control is established. Do not just look at the People’s Navy moving toward the deep blue but also see the surging waves of the deep blue; although the ocean is vast, history suggests there can only be a single sovereignty.
In short, facing the great changes unseen in a century, we need to consider issues more through wartime thinking and brace for the turbulent waves ahead. Wishing everyone safety.